March, 1997

Dear ICE Subscriber:

Maybe you read the Newsweek article on the Year 2000 Problem. It appeared in the January 27 issue. It began:

By now you've probably heard about the "Millennium Bug," the potential worldwide computer meltdown that could, the experts warn, all but paralyze the planet come Jan. 1, 2000.

"All but paralyze the planet" is strong language. When applied to a specific date or event in the future, such language is rare in the conventional press. The article does not debunk the experts. On the contrary, it insists: "This is no minor problem." Furthermore, "80 percent of governments and corporations around the world still use older machines. And most of them are far from solving the problem." It ended with a quotation from Howard Ruben of Hunter College, a computer scientist and expert in this problem: "Just think about trying to get elected president in 2000 if the government is starting to collapse."

The writer in no way demeaned any of this. He wrote it straight, and he got it right. But, you're probably thinking, if this is true, then why isn't there panic? Because that's not the way panic works. Panic hits large groups only when there is no alternative to a looming disaster. But when it hits, men can think of nothing else. Only through an act of self-discipline can they focus their thoughts on something else for very long.

Let me describe a good example of late-blooming panic in American history. In late August of 1878, Memphis was hit with yellow fever. People had known that this killer plague was coming. In those days, scientists did not know that this horrifying disease was carried by mosquitos, but they could track its course and accurately predict its arrival.

Advance reports had come of its approach up the Mississippi River, yet Memphis residents did nothing. They just sat there, immobile. It hit New Orleans on July 27. It hit Grenada, Mississippi, on August 9. What did the local newspaper say? "Keep cool! Avoid patent medicines and bad whiskey! Go about your business as usual; be cheerful, and laugh as much as possible." No one wants to be accused of starting a panic. No newspaper tells its readers to flee the region. If they fled, it would lower the sale of newspapers.

Panic hit soon after the disease arrived. In 10 days, 25,000 people fled the city, leaving behind 21,000: 14,000 blacks and 6,000 whites. In other words, 55% of the population fled. Most doctors and nurses stayed. They knew what their duty was, and they performed it. (They were also very well paid by the city.) Many of them died alongside their patients. All 6,000 whites fell sick; over 4,000 died. Of the blacks, 946 died: a much lower percentage. Of 41 policemen, 11 fled and 12 died. The chief then hired 13 blacks, and they were kept on after the pestilence died out in the October frost.

It took courage in 1878 to remain on duty after the panic hit. Priests and nuns stayed. Half of the Protestant pastors fled. Yet most people had just sat there, paralyzed, until the plague could not be avoided any longer. Then they fled. Those whites who didn't mostly died. ("Epidemic," American Heritage Oct/Nov. 1984.)

You will not be able to flee on January 1, 2000. This phenomenon is worldwide. Either this thing is overblown or it isn't. But whichever it is, it cannot be stopped now. It may be yellow fever, 1878, or chicken pox, but its spread is predictable. Get ready.

On Feb. 10, Computerweek published an article, "Getting Down to the Wire." It reported on a February 6 report by the Federal Government on the estimated cost of repairing the government's tens of billions of lines of code: $2.3 billion, less than a tenth of the previous estimates. (One critic said this is 7 cents a line; the industry rate is around $1, before wages skyrocket, as they will.) Some non-government analysts put it at $60 billion.

The article went on to report that at the Department of Defense, 302 computer systems are fully compliant. That's the good news. There are 7,000 systems to go. That's the bad news. Social Security discovered its problem in 1989. It began the repair job in 1991. By June of last year, it had 6 million lines of code repaired. That's the good news. Out of 30 million. That's the bad news. Yet Social Security is ahead of every other U.S. government agency, and presumably ahead of every national government agency on earth.

A plan issued by the Office of Management and Budget calls for rewritten code for all agencies in December 1998. This leaves 11 months for testing. But full implementation is not required until November, 1999. If a system is not compliant, the agency will have one month to review millions of lines of code and fix them.

Meanwhile, the Securities Industry Association has formed a Year 2000 committee. It plans to conduct a compliance test of all Wall Street companies. That's the good news. In 1999. That's the bad news. Prof. Leon Kappelman was quoted in the article: "Computer professional societies and industry organizations have been grossly negligent in this situation. There's a prevalent feeling that the problems are not serious and are as simple as a maintenance job to fix." You can download a copy of the article at http://techweb.cmp.com/iw/617/17iu200.htm

I had dinner with Prof. Kappelman on February 3, three days before the report was issued. We were joined by a South African programmer, Karl Feilder, who says that the Year 2000 Problem is as bad for interconnected systems dependent on desktop computers as it is for mainframes. He had just spent the day lecturing to 125 computer specialists employed by the State of Texas. Another participant, Steve Gordon, is a programmer who is in the business of helping companies plan a Year 2000 repair for their mainframes.

After going through the options, we agreed: the public still has not grasped what the West is facing. Yet panic has not hit. The Year 2000 story is merely "noise" at this stage. My belief is that this will not change until the crisis is literally upon us.

I handed them photocopies of "Epidemic." My point: men simply will not come to grips psychologically with an unstoppable catastrophe until it is literally upon them. If there is no easy escape, they just sit. If there is no conventional escape, they just sit. This is why you can still buy home power generators, diesel fuel and tanks, and acreage in rural areas. This is why people lend money on 30-year mortgages. This is why there is still a ready market for urban homes (which mine will be on sometime this month). All this will end.

Consider a mainframe computer-integrated system. If some of its components go down, it will no longer remain a system. Consider these systems: the national electrical power grid, railroads, oil pipelines, natural gas pipelines, banks, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and the world's stock markets. You really don't need to think about the "little" things, such as your local supermarket, the 50,000 on sale at Wal-Mart, your corporate pension program, or all those other "peripheral" items. Just think about the biggies.

Consider a modern railroad. How do trains keep from crashing into each other? Because they are controlled by a computer. The computer may be 1,000 miles away. Will it work in 2000? If it goes haywire, how will the trains run on time, or even run late? Where are all those employees who used to handle train switching? Dead or retired. Then how will trains deliver coal to major cities? How will coal-fired electrical power-generating plants stay on-line? My guess: the railroads will be nationalized.

January 1, 2000, hits in the middle of winter. To what extent will the nation's power grid be affected? I wish I knew. I have been posting this question and others like it on an Internet forum devoted to this problem. I have received very few straight answers, and the few that I have received have not been happy-face replies.

Today, the public hears about the year 2000 the way it hears Muzak in an elevator. It's there, but nobody pays much attention. People are focused on their daily activities. They won't spare the time to prepare for something so far away: 33 months — maybe less, if we're talking about the banking system (and we are). This includes senior officials who are just too busy to push through the computer repair. But when welfare checks stop coming, a lot of people will not sit quietly. They will riot. The arsonists will go into action once again. On that day, urban water systems had better be year 2000-compliant.

I take arson very seriously. That is why I will move the ICE library to a more rural setting in the next few months. My commitment is to the survival of my books and my publications. They are the heart of my life and ministry. I will have all of ICE's books posted on the Web late this month, I hope. I will be able to publish, if (1) the World Wide Web holds up, (2) the nation's electrical power grid holds up, and (3) the phone lines hold up. If the banks hold up, ICE may even get paid (though probably not). I will be able to publish my various newsletters by e-mail, assuming there is a means of payment that the Internet service provider will accept. The payments system is the West's Achilles heel.

In any case, no one will be paying attention to anything but the Year 2000 Problem after mid-1999. In the midst of a calamity, men can think about nothing else, discuss nothing else. I'm just getting started a couple of years early.

I think we are heading for the grand civilizational transition predicted by Pitirim Sorokin in his book, The Crisis of Our Age (1941). We are also headed for the scenario described in his follow-up book, Man and Society in Calamity (1942). We are also headed for the greatest evangelism opportunity in five centuries. Will Christians be ready to lead through well-organized charitable activity? Will they be beggars or providers?

Let me talk to urban pastors. If you could secure a rural pastorate, should you take it? That depends on the commitment of your urban flock. Wheat in 5-gallon plastic containers is cheap: $200 buys a year's supply of food for one person. If your present elders are willing publicly to recommend food storage, both by the church and by members, stay. Are they willing to encourage members to plant gardens with non-hybrid seeds, which will produce seeds that can be planted next season? If so, stay. Once sheep call for help, their pastor ought to stay. But if your church is unwilling to listen to your warning, as well as Newsweek's warning, then you can legitimately leave. A word to the wise is sufficient.

Isn't this extreme? Of course it is. The problem we are facing is extreme. It's like Memphis in July, 1878. Protestant pastors waited. Then they departed under fire. Maybe they left with their congregations. If so, fine. But why did they wait until the very end? Why did they sit tight, knowing what was in store for them? Because everyone else was sitting tight. No one wants to be the first to yell "Fire!" in a burning theater.

I smell smoke. So, I am yelling "Fire!" I think it's my job to make evaluations. The year 2000 scenario is like a puzzle with trillions of pieces. No one but God can see them as a unit. But we can see as through a glass, darkly. We should do our best to think through the interconnections as they may affect us in our callings before God. I'm just helping you to get started. But if you think this just couldn't happen, re-read the Book of Lamentations. We're not immune to corporate covenant sanctions.

Think about all those dominoes. Think about how many of them could fall on you. Then think about how to get out of the way on the really big ones. Then start praying.

Sincerely,