January, 1999

Dear ICE Supporter:

Y2K is the first major social issue to be born on the Internet. Most of the Y2K documentation is either exclusively on the World Wide Web or else is so obscure that no one would have assembled it in its printed formats. My collection on http://www.remnant.orgcould not have been assembled in pre-Internet days for less than $1,000,000. As it is, it has taken about 4,000 hours of my donated time, plus the time of dozens of Web surfers who supply me with new links daily.

When "60 Minutes" ran a Year 2000 segment, Y2K moved definitively from a fringe topic to the mainstream, from the Internet to the media. Still, nothing happened. Millions of viewers saw the program, but there were lots of 50-lb. sacks of pinto beans at Sam's Club the next day. There was no run on the banks. The stock market staggered in the four days following the broadcast, but Y2K had nothing visible to do with this. No market analyst that I saw identified the "60 Minutes" broadcast as the cause.

In the early stages of a new idea, the idea invades public discourse from the fringe. Y2K has barely begun to penetrate the popular media. The brief news stories that had previously appeared sporadically were noise for most people, not news. Y2K is still mostly static. Only a few people listen to the message, and fewer still take any action.

Think of Jesus' ministry in, say, the second year. He was on the fringes of Jewish society. John the Baptist had literally been on the fringe: across the Jordan. When high muckety-mucks showed up, he said: "O generation of vipers, who hath warned you to flee from the wrath to come?" (Matt 3:7b). To the little people, he did not ask this.

Inside Israel after the ascension, word began to spread to visiting Jews: Pentecost. Then it spread to the Eastern Roman Empire. Then to Rome itself. But even here, senior officials knew nothing of Jesus until Nero blamed the city's fire on the Christians. The story of Jesus spread from the fringes of Rome to the center only over many decades.

THE ART BELL SHOW

On Saturday morning, December 4, beginning at 1 a.m., I was interviewed by a radio talk show host, Art Bell. He has an all-night show that reaches 7 million listeners by satellite. The interview lasted three hours, plus about an hour of ads. He is the fourth most listened-to radio talk host, after Rush Limbaugh, Laura Schlesinger, and Howard Stern. But in the late night hours, he's the dominant force in North America.

His is a fringe show. First, it's an all-night show. Second, he is a throwback to Long John Nebel on WOR in New York City in the 1960's. Long John, a former carnival barker, had guests that included occultists, strongly religious people, and people with strange stories to tell. Art Bell carries on this tradition. He is not part of the mainstream media. But the size of his audience is formidable. He is part of the unexpected AM radio revival of the 1990's, which has been mostly a conservative phenomenon.

If 5% of these 7 million people -- 350,000 -- decided to buy, say, three one-ounce American gold eagle coins, that would be over a million ounces. In fiscal 1998, the U.S. Mint sold its all-time record number of coins: 1,025,000 ounces. A mere 5% of Bell's audience could easily buy up an entire year's production. They would want to do this the day after the program. It's impossible, of course. They could not get delivery.

We aren't talking about the entire U.S. population. We are talking about 5% of the radio audience that I have told to buy a few gold coins. I have been on that show three times for four hours each time. Hearing, they do not hear. They do not comprehend what I'm saying about Y2K and the fractional reserve banking system. They sit, immobile.

It's not a matter of insufficient evidence any more. Lots of evidence is available. There is too much evidence for anyone to read. Most of it points to big trouble in 2000, when it doesn't point to a complete collapse. Seeing, they will not see.

It is not a matter of not knowing when. We know when. This event, unlike all others in history, we can date precisely in advance. Seeing, they will not see.

THE SECRET OF SUCCESSFUL SELLING: WAIT FOR PEOPLE TO WANT TO BUY

There is a rule in direct-marketing: you can't sell prevention profitably; you can only sell a cure. You can't sell a diet to keep people from getting fat. Nobody gets excited about not gaining weight. Fat people get excited about losing weight. Also, you can't sell fire alarms. You can barely sell life insurance, and only if you're a good salesman, so the companies design life insurance products for the salesman's advantage, not the buyer's. You must sell into emotion. You sell people what they have already made up their minds to buy. How? By providing facts and logic that reinforce their emotions.

That's why people will not believe in Y2K today. They can't cope with it emotionally. A husband who has figured it out can't persuade his wife with more evidence. Fear shuts her down. More facts simply scare her more. Hearing, she will not hear. Wives who get the picture can't persuade their husbands, who can't figure out a complete solution. So, they shut down. Hearing, they will not hear.

The hurricane season is well known to Floridians. Why don't they buy bottled water and flashlight batteries at the beginning of each season, at discount prices? I don't know, but they don't. Why don't they buy two days before the storm? No one knows. They will buy on the day before the storm is scheduled to hit, or even on the day of its arrival. They do not learn from experience. This pattern of panic buying at the last minute occurs year after year, generation after generation.

Would it be cost-effective for store owners to develop ad campaigns based on "buy early, before the storm hits"? No. They would lose money every time. Does this mean that most Floridians think there will be no storms? No; they merely persuade themselves that the storms will not be hurricanes. "Hurricanes will hit only in other parts of Florida. There will be local problems, of course, but not a disaster." What do they do to protect themselves against these unstated problems? Nothing. That would cost money and time. After all, there won't be a disaster. "It's nothing to worry about. Sit tight. Do nothing. Wait."

VAN TIL'S APOLOGETICS AND Y2K

We see Van Til's presuppositionalism at work. Evidence does not persuade. There is a fundamentalist apologetic program with the title, "Evidence that demands a verdict." It is based on the logic of the resurrection in relation to the doctrine of hell. Here are some standard verdicts to this presentation: (1) anything can happen; (2) that's just your opinion; (3) that's an extreme, one-sided view of what Jesus taught; (4) most historians disagree with this view; (5) nobody knows for sure what happened at Calvary; (6) I could never believe in a God like that; (7) I'll think about it later.

The same sorts of answers are freely applied to the evidence of Y2K. They all boil down to this: there is no objective truth, and even if there is, nobody agrees about it. Therefore, my decision regarding your evidence is this: let's wait and see. This in an emotion-based decision to reject the evidence because of its implications. It is very effective in resisting the message of sin, death, and final judgment. Evidence does not persuade. The Holy Spirit does.

What is the Y2K evidence? The following are industries in which not one organizationhas claimed Y2K compliance, fully tested, with independent third-party verification: banking, electric power generation, commercial airports, telephones, railroads, large-city water and sewage utilities, Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and the U.S. Defense Department. Social Security has been working on Y2K since 1991. The rest started in 1996 or later.

The heads of 100 million American households, if they knew any of this, would say what 99% of those who have heard it still say: "It won't be too bad. Fear-mongering and hype are a greater threat then Y2K is. We'll beat this thing." You know: what non-Christians say about hell.

The reason I keep hammering on Y2K is because: (1) I have a moral obligation to say what I think is true in a life- threatening situation; (2) people occasionally change their minds, based on emotion; (3) when a few people are ready to change their minds, I will be there to provide facts, logic, and emotion to justify their emotional reasons for changing their minds.

PHASES OF AWARENESS

There will be a pre-panic phase in 1999, at which time millions of people will, without warning, change their minds on Y2K. I think this will happen in April, when Canada and New York State move to fiscal year 2000. Full-scale international panic will come in the second half of 1999, possibly in the early days of July, when the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission will begin shutting down noncompliant nuclear power plants.

In the pre-panic phase, supplies of survival products will dry up overnight. Phone lines to coin companies will become permanently busy. All this will take is for me to be there the night that 5% of Art Bell's listeners finally conclude: "Maybe I ought to spend $1,000 on a few gold coins, just in case." As for the other 100 million heads of U.S. households, they will panic after they realize that they can't buy the coins or solar panels or whatever else others have bought, leaving none for them. Being told "No! You can't have any!" will make them demand it. They will resent being told "No!" Too late.

Different people will change their minds for different reasons, but for millions of them, their minds will be changed en masse. Some event will trigger the change of opinion of millions of people literally overnight, the same way that long lines appeared in front of gasoline stations in large cities in 1974. There will be several waves of these changes throughout the year, each one depleting the dwindling supplies of survival goods.

When it happens, people who have changed their opinion will talk of Y2K ceaselessly. They will think of little else. They will not understand why they did not see it coming much earlier. They will curse themselves for not having taken action when they first heard. "I knew! I knew!" Three words will paralyze them: shoulda, woulda, coulda. The longer they heard about y2k and did not prepare, the greater the self-recrimination and moral paralysis. "And that servant, which knew his lord's will, and prepared not himself, neither did according to his will, shall be beaten with many stripes. But he that knew not, and did commit things worthy of stripes, shall be beaten with few stripes. For unto whomsoever much is given, of him shall be much required: and to whom men have committed much, of him they will ask the more" (Luke 12:47-48).

For some of you, the story of the ten virgins and their lamps has already motivated you into action. Never forget this part of the story: "And the foolish said unto the wise, Give us of your oil; for our lamps are gone out. But the wise answered, saying, Not so; lest there be not enough for us and you: but go ye rather to them that sell, and buy for yourselves" (Matt 25:8-9). They will not prepare, but they will remember. Just say no.

Sincerely,